{"id":12913,"date":"2023-06-27T12:17:03","date_gmt":"2023-06-27T10:17:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/iefweb.developallin.com\/ief-market-forecast-9a-edicio-previsions-dels-mercats-financers-a-curt-termini\/"},"modified":"2023-12-11T16:54:43","modified_gmt":"2023-12-11T15:54:43","slug":"ief-market-forecast-previsions-mercats-financers-curt-termini","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/ief-market-forecast-previsions-mercats-financers-curt-termini\/","title":{"rendered":"IEF Market Forecast, 9a edici\u00f3: previsions dels mercats financers a curt termini"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li><b>Jordi Martret, economista expert en inversions, ha destacat que el cicle econ\u00f2mic que estem vivint \u00e9s at\u00edpic. L\u2019arribada de la pand\u00e8mia, la postcrisi i la guerra a Ucra\u00efna s\u2019han tradu\u00eft en un canvi de cicle que est\u00e0 afectant directament a les inversions, tant a curt com a llarg termini<\/b><\/li>\n<li><b>Bas Fransen, director de Capital Markets a Caixa d\u2019Enginyers, ha explicat que la renda fixa aporta una informaci\u00f3 m\u00e9s fiable que la renda variable sobre el que pensen els mercats a curt termini<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>L\u2019Institut d\u2019Estudis Financers (IEF) ha celebrat la <b>novena edici\u00f3 de l\u2019IEF Market Forecast<\/b>. <b>Bas Fransen<\/b>, director de Capital Markets a Caixa d\u2019Enginyers, <b>Jordi Martret,<\/b> director d\u2019inversions a Norz Patrimonia, <b>Jaume Puig<\/b>, director general de GVC Gaesco, i <b>Luis Torras<\/b>, director d\u2019EDM, col\u00b7laborador de l\u2019IEF i moderador de la sessi\u00f3, han estat els encarregats d\u2019analitzar la situaci\u00f3 macroecon\u00f2mica actual, les previsions, les tend\u00e8ncies i les millors oportunitats d\u2019inversi\u00f3 pel segon semestre de 2023.<\/p>\n<p>Jaume Puig ha volgut remarcar la import\u00e0ncia de la <b>inflaci\u00f3 subjacent<\/b>, la que m\u00e9s preocupa ara mateix als experts financers i econ\u00f2mics. El ponent ha destacat que en l\u2019actualitat, la inflaci\u00f3 subjacent es troba controlada, per\u00f2 en uns valors molt elevats, perqu\u00e8 el Banc Central Europeu ha actuat tard. De fet, l\u2019expert ha reconegut que encara no sabem si aquesta inflaci\u00f3 ha arribat al seu m\u00e0xim o si ha de continuar creixent, de forma m\u00e9s moderada, durant el segon semestre de 2023. Aix\u00f2 s\u00ed, Puig ha assegurat que els tipus d\u2019inter\u00e8s m\u00e0xims es veuran durant la resta d\u2019any i que durant el 2024 i el 2025 haurien de comen\u00e7ar a baixar. L\u2019analista financer ha explicat que \u201cel gran dubte dels mercats financers gira al voltant dels tipus d\u2019inter\u00e8s a llarg termini\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Per la seva banda, Jordi Martret ha repassat el <b>complex escenari macroecon\u00f2mic<\/b>. Martret considera que el m\u00e9s probable \u00e9s que la Reserva Federal (FED) no continu\u00ef apujant els tipus d\u2019inter\u00e8s. Malgrat les advert\u00e8ncies de Powell, la FED t\u00e9 poc marge per apujar m\u00e9s els tipus i, en tot cas, la pujada m\u00e0xima addicional seria de 0,25 punts b\u00e0sics.<\/p>\n<p>Martret ha destacat el car\u00e0cter at\u00edpic de l\u2019actual cicle econ\u00f2mic, trastocat pels efectes de la pand\u00e8mia i l\u2019agressivitat de les pol\u00edtiques monet\u00e0ries i fiscals o la guerra a Ucra\u00efna. Tot aix\u00f2 s\u2019ha tradu\u00eft en un canvi de cicle que est\u00e0 afectant directament a les inversions, tant a curt com a llarg termini. L\u2019exemple m\u00e9s clar d\u2019aquesta problem\u00e0tica es troba, tal com reconeix Martret, que el sector manufacturer i el sector serveis tendeixen a convergir, per\u00f2 en aquest cas el primer d\u2019ells es troba en contracci\u00f3 econ\u00f2mica, mentre que el segon es troba en expansi\u00f3.<\/p>\n<p>Bas Fransen ha emfatitzat, durant la seva exposici\u00f3, que el 2022 va ser un any molt complicat pel <b>mercat de bons<\/b>, el pitjor que es recorda. La inflaci\u00f3 i la pujada de tipus d\u2019inter\u00e8s, tan r\u00e0pida en el temps i agressiva per les circumst\u00e0ncies, han perjudicat aquest mercat. No obstant aix\u00f2, el ponent ha remarcat que \u201cles lletres del tresor s\u00f3n les inversions m\u00e9s rendibles a curt termini\u201d en aquest 2023. Tenint en compte la situaci\u00f3 dels bons i els factors que els envolten, invertir en aquests valors de renda fixa a curt termini sembla la millor soluci\u00f3 mentre s\u2019analitza com evoluciona la rendibilitat dels actius a llarg termini.<\/p>\n<p>Finalment, Fransen tamb\u00e9 ha valorat la situaci\u00f3 actual dels <b>tipus d\u2019inter\u00e8s<\/b> i ha assegurat que el sistema es pot mantenir en un 3%. De fet, ha destacat que la s\u00e8rie hist\u00f2rica evidencia que sempre s\u2019han tingut valors positius, excepte a la darrera d\u00e8cada on hem vist tipus negatius. El problema, segons apunta, \u00e9s que la societat s\u2019ha acostumat a viure en aquest mercat de tipus negatius. Tot i aix\u00f2, tamb\u00e9 ha explicat que els tipus d\u2019inter\u00e8s han pujat tant durant els darrers mesos que les previsions indiquen que ja nom\u00e9s poden baixar.<\/p>\n<p>Actualment, la q\u00fcesti\u00f3 principal descansa en saber quin ser\u00e0 el nivell de tipus a llarg termini i quan arribarem aquest nivell.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jordi Martret, economista expert en inversions, ha destacat que el cicle econ\u00f2mic que estem vivint \u00e9s at\u00edpic. L\u2019arribada de la pand\u00e8mia, la postcrisi i la guerra a Ucra\u00efna s\u2019han tradu\u00eft en un canvi de cicle que est\u00e0 afectant directament a les inversions, tant a curt com a llarg termini Bas Fransen, director de Capital Markets [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4674,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[100],"tags":[19,21,50],"class_list":["post-12913","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-informacio-ief","tag-analisis-mercados","tag-mercados-financieros","tag-tipos-interes"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>IEF Market Forecast, 9a edici\u00f3: previsions dels mercats financers a curt termini - IEF<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Visita l&#039;\u00faltima not\u00edcia sobre IEF Market Forecast, 9a edici\u00f3: previsions dels mercats financers a curt termini. IEF, el centre dels professionals de les finances.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/ief-market-forecast-previsions-mercats-financers-curt-termini\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"IEF Market Forecast, 9a edici\u00f3: previsions dels mercats financers a curt termini - IEF\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Visita l&#039;\u00faltima not\u00edcia sobre IEF Market Forecast, 9a edici\u00f3: previsions dels mercats financers a curt termini. IEF, el centre dels professionals de les finances.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/ief-market-forecast-previsions-mercats-financers-curt-termini\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Instituto Estudios Financieros - L\u00edder en conocimiento financiero\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-06-27T10:17:03+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-12-11T15:54:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Plantilla-POST-Twitter-\u2013-Eumo_dc-5.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"900\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"IEF Institut dEstudis Financers\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrit per\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"IEF Institut dEstudis Financers\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Temps estimat de lectura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minuts\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/ief-market-forecast-previsions-mercats-financers-curt-termini\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/ief-market-forecast-previsions-mercats-financers-curt-termini\/\",\"name\":\"IEF Market Forecast, 9a edici\u00f3: previsions dels mercats financers a curt termini - IEF\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-06-27T10:17:03+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-12-11T15:54:43+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/#\/schema\/person\/b6ef5c498d70bd921b7ddf129243372c\"},\"description\":\"Visita l'\u00faltima not\u00edcia sobre IEF Market Forecast, 9a edici\u00f3: previsions dels mercats financers a curt termini. IEF, el centre dels professionals de les finances.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/ief-market-forecast-previsions-mercats-financers-curt-termini\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"ca\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/ief-market-forecast-previsions-mercats-financers-curt-termini\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/ief-market-forecast-previsions-mercats-financers-curt-termini\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Portada\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"IEF Market Forecast, 9a edici\u00f3: previsions dels mercats financers a curt termini\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/\",\"name\":\"Instituto Estudios Financieros - L\u00edder en conocimiento financiero\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"ca\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/#\/schema\/person\/b6ef5c498d70bd921b7ddf129243372c\",\"name\":\"IEF Institut dEstudis Financers\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"ca\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/c3b61ffa550c02e978b7bd68f0afa9a39af9a6f13fe39949e7f8da4aab75245c?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/c3b61ffa550c02e978b7bd68f0afa9a39af9a6f13fe39949e7f8da4aab75245c?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"IEF Institut dEstudis Financers\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/author\/ief-institut\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"IEF Market Forecast, 9a edici\u00f3: previsions dels mercats financers a curt termini - IEF","description":"Visita l'\u00faltima not\u00edcia sobre IEF Market Forecast, 9a edici\u00f3: previsions dels mercats financers a curt termini. IEF, el centre dels professionals de les finances.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/ief-market-forecast-previsions-mercats-financers-curt-termini\/","og_locale":"ca_ES","og_type":"article","og_title":"IEF Market Forecast, 9a edici\u00f3: previsions dels mercats financers a curt termini - IEF","og_description":"Visita l'\u00faltima not\u00edcia sobre IEF Market Forecast, 9a edici\u00f3: previsions dels mercats financers a curt termini. IEF, el centre dels professionals de les finances.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/ief-market-forecast-previsions-mercats-financers-curt-termini\/","og_site_name":"Instituto Estudios Financieros - L\u00edder en conocimiento financiero","article_published_time":"2023-06-27T10:17:03+00:00","article_modified_time":"2023-12-11T15:54:43+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1600,"height":900,"url":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Plantilla-POST-Twitter-\u2013-Eumo_dc-5.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"IEF Institut dEstudis Financers","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Escrit per":"IEF Institut dEstudis Financers","Temps estimat de lectura":"4 minuts"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/ief-market-forecast-previsions-mercats-financers-curt-termini\/","url":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/ief-market-forecast-previsions-mercats-financers-curt-termini\/","name":"IEF Market Forecast, 9a edici\u00f3: previsions dels mercats financers a curt termini - IEF","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/#website"},"datePublished":"2023-06-27T10:17:03+00:00","dateModified":"2023-12-11T15:54:43+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/#\/schema\/person\/b6ef5c498d70bd921b7ddf129243372c"},"description":"Visita l'\u00faltima not\u00edcia sobre IEF Market Forecast, 9a edici\u00f3: previsions dels mercats financers a curt termini. IEF, el centre dels professionals de les finances.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/ief-market-forecast-previsions-mercats-financers-curt-termini\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"ca","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/ief-market-forecast-previsions-mercats-financers-curt-termini\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/ief-market-forecast-previsions-mercats-financers-curt-termini\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Portada","item":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"IEF Market Forecast, 9a edici\u00f3: previsions dels mercats financers a curt termini"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/","name":"Instituto Estudios Financieros - L\u00edder en conocimiento financiero","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"ca"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/#\/schema\/person\/b6ef5c498d70bd921b7ddf129243372c","name":"IEF Institut dEstudis Financers","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"ca","@id":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/c3b61ffa550c02e978b7bd68f0afa9a39af9a6f13fe39949e7f8da4aab75245c?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/c3b61ffa550c02e978b7bd68f0afa9a39af9a6f13fe39949e7f8da4aab75245c?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"IEF Institut dEstudis Financers"},"url":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/author\/ief-institut\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12913","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12913"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12913\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13600,"href":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12913\/revisions\/13600"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4674"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12913"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12913"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.iefweb.org\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12913"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}